Advanced TST
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Thread: Advanced TST

  1. #1
    If you aren't acquainted with Triple Screen Trading, then it is a basic technical trend following egy involving three timeframes:

    - Wait for a trend to grow on the highest timeframe.
    - Drop to the next timefame and await a pullback against that trend.
    - Drop to the lowest timeframe and input if price turns back into the direction of the larger trend.


    That really is a fundamental analysis-based variant of Triple Screen Trading.

    The installation... I don't start searching for a trade until these three conditions are met:

    1. The chart is indiing that a trend is in place.
    2. The daily chart shows a pullback against that trend
    3. The fundamental reason behind the weekly trend is still there, meaning the trend is likely to last.

    Only when these three items are in place, I fall to the 4H charts and input if/when price breaks back into the direction of the weekly trend.


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    Fundamental analysis can be overwhelming and intimidating if you attempt to do it all yourself. There's a huge quantity of information coming from every nation every day... economic data, trade conditions, local and international political concerns, altering fiscal policies etc... it is far too much for any one trader to examine and use. Fortunately we have te of exceptionally edued economists in each nation, absorbing this information, examining it and boiling everything down into simple summaries we can use. They are called central banks.... And while they aren't perfect they provide will place us on the correct side of all that information. If you don't trust central banks, or if you buy into the conspiracy theories about these, simply try to do that work yourself. I dare you.

    In the commodity markets, COT data serves a similar function. COT positioning represents te of the sharpest minds in the business, who spend absorbing and analyzing every bit of information about every tradeable commodity. We should be place by trading in the same way as these , more frequently than not.

    I think that it's pretty cool that these two tools are available to us as traders. When you consider just how much information is being gathered on our own behalf, examined and condensed into such an easy and arrangement, by te of people experienced than ourselves, it seems silly not to make the most of it.

    I've simplified things here... there's a lot of nuance and discretion involved in my analysis which I'll get into later but my basic FA principles are:

    - Only buy a currency if the central bank is hawkish/becoming hawkish.
    - Only promote a currency if the central bank is dovish/becoming dovish.
    - Only buy stock indices if all major central banks are simultaneously dovish.
    - Only market indices if all major central banks are simultaneously hawkish.
    - Only buy a commodity if COT shows large speculators are buying.
    - Only promote a commodity if COT show large speculators are selling.

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    I only trade Weekly/Daily/4H charts.... Please do it somewhere else, if you want to use unique timeframes. Among the most important items is that the different components of your egy are currently unfolding within the period of time if you are mixing FA with TA. This sounds obvious, however, it took me a long time to figure out and grasp this simple idea. If you think you have a handle on the fundamentals, the very first question to ask yourself is how frequently do the fundamentals change? If you are trading reactions to intraday news releases the fundamentals are changing several times a day, and that means you need a technical system which gets you out of the market (on average) in a few hours.

    Because I am trading longer duration themes such as central bank opinion, which maybe change once or twice a month, I attempt to get in and out of the market (on average) in several weeks.... So lower timeframes don't work with this egy.

  2. #2
    First example - aluminum.

    Weekly chart is clearly showing a long-term downtrend:




    Daily chart has dragged back, into the 50 20 EMAs:




    But COT shows big speculators still selling, making the downtrend more likely than not to continue.


  3. #3
    From there I fall to the 4H and look for a series of inside bars, or consolidation pattern.

    I set an entry order at the bottom of this range, and S/L near the summit of it:




    Therefore my order only gets filled if price breaks from its range in the direction of the weekly fashion.

  4. #4
    Anyone looking to get a bullshit discretionary egy/ trading version and wishes to learn from someone who knows how to trade the markets successfully pay attention to numb and his thread. .

    How do I know this. . I've traded the same accounts as numbnuts and understand exactly what he is capable of...

    ....

    Hey numb, you kept this quiet. . Don't share to many secrets. .lol. .

    Subscribed. .

  5. #5

  6. #6

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    anybody looking for a no bullshit discretionary egy/ trading model and wants to learn from someone who knows how to trade the markets successfully over a lengthy period of time, pay close attention to numb and his thread. . How do I understand this. . I've traded the same accounts as numbnuts and understand precisely what he is capable of....... Hey numb, you kept this quiet. . Don't share to secrets. .lol. . Subscribed. .
    100% agreed.

    Subscribed too.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Anyone looking for a no bullshit discretionary egy/ trading version and wants to learn from a person who knows how to trade the markets successfully over a lengthy time period, pay close attention to numb and his thread. . How do I know this. . I have traded the very same accounts as and know exactly what he's capable of....... Hey numb, you kept this quiet. . Do not share to a lot of secrets. .lol. . Subscribed. .
    Cheers Ja .... As you know I have done for three decades or the last two, but gave a lot of cash back in the year's first two months. After going over all my trades with a fine tooth comb trying to find where I'd gone wrong, I walked out from the market for some time.... Only when I looked at the picture and stepped back I realized I shouldn't happen to be trading currencies at all during this period. I was trying to buy USD and GBP since their savings were the most powerful of the majors, although the Fed and BOE were backpedaling from their previous hawkish positions.

    That's where I have been missing IMO, using the discipline to recognize when circumstances aren't suitable to trade and sitting on the sidelines for months on end waiting patiently to the markets to return. I have been guilty of trying to force trades according to my timetable rather than adjusting my pace to fit what the markets are currently doing.

    Thus the reason for me starting this thread. If anybody trades this together with me personally they may profit, but that obviously isn't why I am sharing it... like almost everyone who shares their egies, my reasons are selfish. If a smart traders trade that egy alongside each other and combine in, I hope it is going to keep me focused and equipped to identify these occasions when trades aren't there.

  9. #9
    I believe that the key to trading, is there is no secret. There's only a handful of simple, commonsense rules which have been around forever and keep getting repeated over and over:

    Don't gamble against central banks and large players.
    Trade with the trend.
    Buy dips, sell items.
    Be patient, await the very best trade setups.
    Get out of losing trades fast.


    Trading this egy automatically places you on the right side of all those rules, every time.... They are baked into it, and it doesn't actually contain much else. I believe that is without being diluted by a bunch of other crap which may or may not work, the simplest egy which encapsulates all of those rules.

  10. #10
    Wheat is clearly trending lower on the weekly chart:




    The daily chart shows a pullback, to some degree of recent resistance:




    But COT shows the big players are still in sell mode:




    Now on the 4H chart I visit some inside bars (consolidation pattern) beginning to form:




    I am putting a sell order at 4.69 (bottom of this consolidation range)
    Stoploss at 4.755 (just over the top of the range)
    Exit at 4.57, over major recent service


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