How to figure when market is trending
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Thread: How to figure when market is trending

  1. #1
    Hi,
    I've built a system which can put a couple trades and functions really well in trending market. How do I figure out or predict if the market will trend v/s when it won't. On a non-trending afternoon the machine is useless, and total of losses.

    Any help is appreciated.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Hi,
    I've built a system that can put a few trades and functions really well in trending market. How do I figure out or predict when the market will trend v/s when it won't. On a afternoon the machine is total of losses, and useless.

    Any help is appreciated.
    I believe you're on a wrong way. There is no any methods to know when the fad starts, if you would know that then follow fad. Could be the best advise would be to realize that the market is in tendency and make transactions.

  3. #3
    So when its at the sub 20's its non?

  4. #4
    LOL we would all like to know one....

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    How can I figure out or forecast when the market will trend v/s when it won't.

  5. #5
    You may look at breakouts for a sign of trendiness.

    You may search for extremely low values of adx and for adx to grow and break over some value.

  6. #6
    The way are numerous. You have to have understand the market behaviour, s/r points, chart patterns, candle analyst, etc.. Just what is your system missing or not performing for you? Let's see if we can tweek it.

  7. #7
    From what I can see, you are trying to figure tendencies and thats nice but once u start too add a few more, things inside, it will not work exactly the same way anymore. For all you know, you are likely to skip a lot of the trending profits you used to make.

    Trend following systems are similar to that. They're geared to harvest $$$ during good tendencies and whipsaws on poor trends.

  8. #8
    I don't understand what Wilder's formula for the ADX power line was, so this may actually be something like it, but here's a easy way to judge fad strengh. Over some variety of previous bars, N only split the total range during that interval by the number of pubs times the average range of a single bar. This value will range from 1/N to 1.

    So if you have 100 bars with a mean elevation of 20 pips, the highest potential total range (perfect trend) you might have over that interval is 2000 pips (this could be together with the high of each bar equivalent to the reduced of the next bar for instance; no retracements at all). The actual total range over the period is going to be some proportion of 2000 and that percent is your trend strength.

    So if the total range was 170 pips, you'd need: 170/(100 x 20) = 8.5percent

    A good tendency is one in which pubs overlap earlier pubs the least. That is quantified by this formulation. It would be quite rare to observe worth over 50% for large quantities of pubs. Evidently, if you pick small periods like 5 pubs, this trendliness value would often have much higher values. This points out a sad truth about trends: most don't last long.

    Hope this helps!

  9. #9
    There is not any way to accurately predict a fad consistently. A egy will be occasionally and cold others.

    You can run your method both long and short in two accounts, and also aspire to compound the crap out of it among them if you are fortunate. Of course, you also might have a concurrent market, and lose on both accounts.

  10. #10
    You may want to post this in a beginner section, this is not a trading Platform

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