Trade and Trader Idea, Concept and Circumstances
Page 1 of 503 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 26

Thread: Trade and Trader Idea, Concept and Circumstances

  1. #1
    To start with I want to emphasize how thrilled I am to be a member of FF regardless of having the ability to post in the trading room forum.

    Secondly I'd like to Begin a wholly new idea and discussion concerning Trade Circumstances. For people who are having discretion as part of the decision making design, trade trader circumstances are important and vital.

    Please feel free to join the discussion. That which we will be doing here is to pick up a particular commerce (a winner or a loser whatever) and describe all of the circumstances that followed that commerce, the way the trade developed versus the traders expectations and what was the final outcome of the transaction versus the traders expectations as well.


    Thanks,

    Nader

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Now and only now I'm convinced that you may go broke taking profits.


    Thanks,

    Nader
    Nader which was an Wonderful experience to talk with us. Along with your statement is so true. I remember a debate ago on the main side where some were arguing no one goes bankrupt taking profits.

    Thank you for sharing, sounds just like a blurb from the market wizards publication

  3. #3
    For a while now I have been fascinated in W.D. Gann's writings. I have to admit that my studies have not been coordinated of accepting what I enjoy from his smorgasboard.

    As many may recall, I love to utilize the public library as much as possible rather than buy a book (then when I must add it to my own library I will make the purchase).

    Anyway herein lies my story.

    From a few Gann text, months back, I gleaned the following information as it relates to the stock market. I have a 3 x 5 note card using these statements (but alas did not write down the text of origin (that is ok, I'll find it when I need to):

    Important dates for Trend Change:

    July 21 to 24
    Aug 8 and 7... 16 and 17... 23 and 24. . .Long downtrend on Stocks. Big month for change.

    Gann was not referring to some year specifically in these remarks however those severe Gann followers may make reference of cycles at the' 7' years.
    I also have followed some of the Gann gurus remarks on web sites. A couple of them were warning signals of a downward move, or even fad change, prior to mid July, based on EW and Gann. So when I saw the flip beginning to take place, on the months and days stated by Gann, I transferred my mutual funds to cash reserve accounts. I have been sitting fine and secure in this market havoc.

    Here Is stated in my notes for the month of September:

    September 16 and 17 bottom, top on 21 to 24

    27 and 28 bottom of big downmove.

    This will be interesting to track.

  4. #4
    Nafara and ....

    Great posts!
    Brought to head the transaction that NEVER happened. The transaction my dre HAUNTS!

    It began for me Aug 02, 2005.
    The gpd/jpy was in a 7 day uptrend following a large move down from 200.00ish to about 193.00 end of June to late July.
    ( these days that's close to some daily pub!! )
    Price headed north to this pair and tested, marginally broke the 200sma on Aug 01, 2005. The day. . .the 2nd, price was pushed back in the 200sma and which was also, at the time, the top of the Boll Band, shutting around 197.50 area. This created exactly what I preceived to be a daily tweezer.

    Now I wanted on board this pair, and was considering to put on a position of 3 to 5 lots. BIG for me, as I am not a Position trader ( Long Term Type or Short Term ). I wanted the best fire sale price that I could get, and at that time, in my mind/calculations....it was around 195.00 /-. ( I didn't avg. Up in those days ) nor take a large, long term position....avg I would have....as component of my stategy to be on board.

    So I decided on putting 3 buy orders....one at 195.50ish, 195.00ish, and 194.50ish. I was countin' my cash!!!!!!!!!

    Well,the tweezer wasn't supported the next day....nor the next, or the next....price eventually broke 200sma solidly, compared to retested, and the 200sma became solid support. BUT I WANTED 195.00 and that I wasn't likely to
    pony up for a pip longer ( avg wise )!!!!

    Well, all can look at a chart and know the rest of the story....
    Stubborness and Greed, with a dash of Panic has left me a Blue Collar working trader....and I dare not consider that potential profit in $$ terms, for fear of my SANITY!!!

    Fxj

  5. #5
    What a wonderful read Nafara.

    I had an identical encounter on GBPUSD throughout the past huge rally up on June and July 07 when GBPUSD pushed up nearly a 1000 pips throughout a one-month time span. I was able to have an excellent entry based on the weekly chart at around 1.9850 if I recall correctly. I really don't manage well trades based off time frames such as the weekly chart because I get impatient and I typically track my stoploss agressively.

    In that specific trade, my path stop got hit by a totally normal and anticipated pullback for 270 pips in profit, then GBPUSD proceeded to keep it's stablished uptrend for another 500 pips, which I of course didnt profit out of. I lost (or rather didnt profit ) thousands of euros in that very trade.

    The most valuable lesson I got out of that trade is that a trader should stick to the time frames he feels more comfortable with. I exchange off 4H time frame and the hourly rate, and when I meddle with extreme time frames such as the weekly or 5-minute charts my trading choices become much poorer.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Nader that has been an wonderful experience to talk with us. Along with your statement is true. I remember a debate on the main side where some were arguing no one goes bankrupt taking profits.

    Thank you for sharingsounds just like a blurb out of the market wizards book
    Thank you a lot. . .This is the thread's main aim. . .To share commerce experiences. .


    Thanks,

    Nader

  7. #7
    Among my currency pairs is the USD/CAD. I like it. The volatility, personality than other pairs along with the price action.

    Volatility, just as I enjoyed it in my Soybeans trade improve risk/reward automatically IF and only IF one manages to obtain a low cost entry. The different character of this pair dictates the USD might be plunging against majors but rallying from the CAD, the fundamentals are isolated and completely different because a lot of the worldwide trade of Canada is done through the US. And the exceptional price action isn't seen as pairs. The pair rarely responds to EU or British economic information .

    Back in 2006, the USD/CAD was plunging like a rock and that I kept watching. I was positioning myself to exchange. However, the pair kept heading down without even looking back so that I could not find myself a fantastic technical entry before the pair attained 1.0900 and began to pull up.

    I began to re-analyze and presumed this to be a bottom till proved otherwise.

    The pair kept trading choppy for around 3 weeks, but it always made higher highs and lower highs, and it will be a textbook definition for an uptrend (I'm not fond of text book definitions as most of them are against fact ).

    Anyhow, I started thinking that this will most likely be an intermediate correction and will probably get the pair up to the 1.1700 in the technical perspective. The pair had been trading in the 1.1200 at the moment.

    So I decided not to proceed with all the major trend as before because this could be a high cost entry, rather, I decided to go with the intermediate uptrend on the long side for a 1 month trade or something until the current up correction ends.

    I began to look for the best possible entry. This is the reason why I like medium and long term trading. They give you time to examine and hunt for the ideal entry and exit points, so jump and you do not need to rush into conclusions.

    The pair has observed 2 minor tops at the time and was heading into making the third. After every top, the pair retraced involving two thirds and four quarters of the previous move. That is, if the pair goes 100 pips up, it retraced approximately 66 to 75 pips every time before purchasing dried up and buying picked up to lift the pair and make another new high.

    This has been logic, the major trend is down and guys are shorting the hell of this correction. I saw this as a indication of strength at the pair. Shorters weren't aggressive enough to push the pair lower and buyers were powerful enough to lift it up immediately to make a new high.

    At that moment, the last high sat at 1.1340 or something like this. I determined that I shall be going the moment the pair closes above this level on a daily basis. My scenario was simple, the war was back and forth and buyers were gaining new ground each moment, so the moment they win more ground in once, sellers would probably throw in the towel and surrender and the pair will most likely extend the move upward strongly.

    The pair did what was expected and handed 1.1340 and closed over it. I went at around 1.1360 or something like this.

    My stop loss was set below the preceding 2 bottoms at around 1.1100. I thought, if sellers were able to find the pair there, breaking the two little bottoms, they would have re-aligned their forces and counter attacked strongly enough to frighten buyers and gain more ground in less time. Along with also the major trend is likely to last.

    The pair began to reunite only after I purchased and that I figured out I had been incorrect in my initial analysis and there could be another round between buyers and sellers and I began to worry as this was against the idea and concept in the first location. HoweverI held tight though I was convinced that I'm swimming against the main flow.

    The pair retreated towards 1.1250 and began to head north and never looked back. I was relieved and felt my scenario was right but my timing and entry were bad.

    And as I expected, after rallying to new highs, sellers dissappeared and the pair rallied strongly towards 1.1500. I immediately doubled my place and moved my stop loss to less than break even at around 1.1300 or something. I figured out that the current battle being won by buyers to the medium term won't pullback towards this amount and if it did, it'd encourage sellers to attack.

    The pair didn't stop at the level since the mystery of this chart was almost shown to everyone, a moderate term uptrend, so each one was going long for 50 or even 100 pips of profit and vendor and shorters were actually having a tough time afterward.

    The pair went straight to 1.1750 before stalling.

    I began to play technically with the chart, locate targets and project them and examine the price action during the whole move.

    Finally I found that the movement is probably ending and the current correction is going to be finished. The movement was really a counter attack from buyers against winning sellers from 3 decades back. Technically it was powerful, but it doesn't warrant moving up. Considering that the rush of covering, the rally will surely be death instead of life.

    So I determined that taking profits is required. Risk of profits evaporating are higher and possibilities of resuming the major downtrend are high to prevent waves of new buyers to push the pair further up, plus the current area was a profit taking one in addition to a solid resistance.

    I waited for a few days to ensure that buyers are struggling to lift prices up along with the pair really went up slowly towards 1.1850 and then reverted back into 1.1750 again quickly and I immediately liquidated.

    This price action proved to be a leading or near the top. The pair flew between 1.1400 to 1.1750 in less than 3 months, but it moved from 1.1750 into 1.1850 in two weeks. The resistance was apparent along with the major downtrend was showing itself into the blind.

    The next attempt to move upward was even weaker and the next sell off was more aggressive and also the pair sold towards 1.1600.

    The trade was to me, but the thought wasn't. I had been now positioning myself to short the pair together with the major fashion and that I had been waiting for a different technical signal confirming the current up correction that I rode on the long side has finished so that I can place my short entry with the maximum probability and the least risk potential.

    And this was another trade that I will describe in another article soon.

    This very long USD/CAD taught me that one can profit while trading against the major trend, but you must be very very careful when doing this and to remember that timing is a very critical factor when doing this.

    It also taught me that if a person is trading the correction against the major trend, he/she has to make positive the correction will be big enough to be worth taking the risk of swimming against the flow. And one can anticipate this move's size from the dimensions of the previous major move.


    Thanks,

    Nader

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Nafara and all....

    Great articles!
    Brought to head the trade that NEVER happened. The trade that HAUNTS my dre!

    It began for me on Aug 02, 2005.
    The gpd/jpy was in a 7 day uptrend following a large move down from 200.00ish to roughly 193.00 end of June to late July.
    ( nowadays that's near a daily bar!! )
    Price headed north for this pair and analyzed, marginally broke the 200sma on Aug 01, 2005. The day. . .the 2nd, price was pushed back in the 200sma and that was also, at the moment, the top of this Boll Band, shutting around 197.50 region. This created what I preceived to be a daily tweezer.

    Now I wanted to board this pair, and was still considering to place to a position of 3 to 5 lots. BIG for me, as I'm not a Position trader ( Long Term Sort or Short Term ). I wanted the best fire sale price that I could get, and at that moment, in my mind/calculations....it was around 195.00 /-. ( I didn't avg. Up in these days ) nor have a large, long term position....avg I would have....as component of my stategy to be on board.

    So I decided about placing 3 buy orders....one at 195.50ish, 195.00ish, and 194.50ish. I was countin' my money!!!!!!!!!

    Well,the tweezer was not supported another day....nor another, or another....price eventually broke 200sma solidly, compared to retested, and the 200sma became solid support. BUT I WANTED 195.00 and that I was not going to
    pony up to get a pip longer ( avg wise )!!!!

    Well, all can look at a chart and know the rest of the narrative....
    Stubborness and Greed, with a dash of Fear has left me a Collar working trader....and I dare not think of that potential profit in $$ terms, for fear of my SANITY!!!

    Fxj
    I know SH happens. You miss a move due to some additional pips to be saved. This has always mazed me. Should you sacrifice those few pips and you also prove to be correct and the trade goes in your favor, then you believe yourself smart enough to act fast rather than wait for the specific pip. And if you sacrifice those pips and you also prove to be incorrect, you just increased your risk and lost money your stop loss got hit.

    I know it's a puzzle and I handed it several times. It is more than a puzzle if you can't exchange lots.

    To be truthful, I haven't figured out a remedy for this until now, however, I will always think, are the loss (Or the risk) okay to me relative to this reward when I sacrificed those pips. If I said yes, I pull on the trigger. When I said no, it will not be appealing, I stick with my numbers and wait for the market to say its' word.


    Thanks,

    Nader

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I will start with myself and describe in details, so far as I can, among my best trades. This was back in June 2006.
    haha! Awesome story man!!

    Believed I was reading market wizards4 for a moment there!!

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    ....and I really don't think of that potential profit in $$ terms, for fear of my SANITY!!
    No sane trader thinks about potential lost profits, because all of the ones who are crazy:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
This website uses cookies
We use cookies to store session information to facilitate remembering your login information, to allow you to save website preferences, to personalise content and ads, to provide social media features and to analyse our traffic. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners more information