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Thread: No free lunch but all the free coffee you can drink

  1. #341
    Quote Originally Posted by Estimate
    I believe that's a very private matter. I myself risk merely 0.5% of my equity as I don´t believe that I´m adequate right now, so I attempt to discover and merely risk that quantity. In case you are feeling comfortable with risking 2.5% - go forward. You will get stopped out a lot, although the strategy operates. Ahead of the market moves to the initial TP, most of the time with 0, someday your SL is reach. In the event you confront a couple times in a row, you'd have big drawdowns by risking 2.5%.

    Once I feel much more comfortable confident with with my own trading I I may rise to 1%.
    Thanx for the fast answer.

    I agree with u that it is determined by the style of the trader but additionally, it is dependent on the win/loss ratio of the body and that will simply be discovered by backtesting,backtesting and then some more back-testing.

    This is apparently a really great,solid and rational system but it is extremely challenging to backtest because you CAn't merely consider the cable for instance and begin backtesting because among the golden rules imho with this system would be to trade the currency pair that reveals the most momentum in a particular way and for that reason it might be,for want of a much better word,wrong to only trade every sign u access it any particular pair without using momentum in to account.

    Essentially what I'm getting at is that it's challenging to backtest and if anyone h AS any concept of exactly what the win/reduction ratio of the system is I'd be quite happy should they may share it.[</br9>https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/forex1496047586.png[/img]

    Thanx again for your own answer.

    Cheers

  2. #342
    [quote=Carmen;2024415]

    Personally I believe with merely 1% you'll be able to make and lose fairly enough cash fairly quickly. Higher risk mechanically raises theoretical(statistical) likelihood of failure-out even in a great win/reduction ratio.

    Need To concur. Specially here. This strategy is likely to be a reduced risk strategy. The point is to risk , several times that are small and attempt to catch a runner occasionally. In the event that you are trading it correctly you will find a couple of long running trades that can provide you with the opportunity to to create your placement(s) to break-even and as it goes farther in your favor mo Re set ups may seem, letting you add on and construct your place while retaining risk in balance.
    Do Not shift the low risk facet by using on too-large of a preliminary place. There will probably be the time to addon in case the trade works out.
    Smaller first standings will make it possible for you to probe for the runners without accelerated drawdowns.

  3. #343
    Quote Originally Posted by negus1976
    Essentially what I'm getting at is that it's challenging to backtest and if anyone h AS any concept of exactly what the win/reduction ratio of the system is I'd be quite happy should they may share it.[</br9>https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/forex1496047588.png[/img]
    Nonetheless would not alter that you you may not understand when loser or victor will happen or in what order.
    Or whether you will be about in the times the victor happen. Or that it'll be managed by you'll as absolutely as in backtesting.
    Or. Or. Or.

    Fundamentally pre-computing information similar to this is near-impossible unless you've got genuine, longer period live information you could toss in to some thing similar to a monte-carlo simulation.

    Personally I believe with merely 1% you'll be able to make and lose fairly enough cash fairly quickly. Higher risk mechanically raises theoretical(statistical) likelihood of failure-out even in a great win/reduction ratio. Only determine how high the opportunity is for enough losers in AROW with risk = your dimensions that is prepared to happen, with likelyhood per loser being even any type of low low percent in case you have ever had statistical analysis. Even at just 30% losers the likelihood(P) for 30-40 losers in AROW needs to be well above 0.

    This Has Been been also miss me personally to simply do the mathematics spontaneously [</br9>https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/forex1496047589.png[/img]

    The challenging bit is the fact that it is even less potential to call sporadic win-loss flip flops and also the truth that only complete losses possess a foreseeable size and whatever else like altered stops to a 1000 pip runner aren't foreseeable at any given point in time..

    Personally I Would not be covetous-swingy with risk before you have really figured out your own personal profile on demonstration or little stakes.

    Iwant to include there is a great chance I Have only composed a massive load of garbage, also. It is maybe not actually my section of expertise. But check always out all posts by Darkstar to the subject if there are any around..I believe this entire % subject was discussed quite a couple of times on FF.

    P.S. Discovered a great speedy and filthy instance manufacturer ==gt; [</br8>http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/applets/binomialdemo.html[/URL]
    For N(sum of trades) = 200 and chance p = 30% for them to be losers, the result for 40 or mo Re X is 0.9991, i.e. nearly sure [</br9>https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/forex1496047591.png[/img]
    Perhaps Not that this is quite relevant specified that there's no apparent 1 or 0 result as win or shed does maybe not have an identical size and effect. But simplified: it nevertheless indicates that within 200 trades even with 70% win rate the opportunity for 40 losers is nearly sure(unless I missed some thing here). Assuming you keep these things in AROW(seperate odds for that, but it is gt; 0%) and 2% on each, properly, you have a guess how much is left afterward [</br9>https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/forex1496047593.png[/img]
    Binomial likely is not appropriate, but as I say..I Have no actual hint [</br9>https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/forex1496047595.png[/img]
    Merely attempting to give a thumbs-rule ballpark thought of what is all feasible in the in the great outdoors wild west..

  4. #344
    Quote Originally Posted by Carmen
    Even of them costing only just 30% losers the likelihood(P) for 30-40 losers in AROW needs to be properly above 0.
    For me every trade is an independent occasion, that signifies that next trade's final result WOn't ever depend on some of the trades that's previously happened. This implies that mathematically the odds to have 10, 100 or 1000 losses in AROW (or wins for for instance) h AS no Thing to do with one techniques probabilty. Future consequence imwo will not be shown by backtesting.

  5. #345
    i discover here....

  6. #346
    Quote Originally Posted by mirandadecambre
    Hi All,

    Been after this ( other) train of thought because the start and straight back in late April did a rapid mechanical backtest and because there was some curiosity believed I Would post my findings here.

    PLEASE NOTICE: This was centered on Oct 07 - Apr 08 NF information - 7 months of information is most probably PERHAPS NOT statistically important ... but as I mentioned above it was a fast evaluation to see if DIBS was workable as an entry system and 7 months is all I really could readily export from MT4 a-T the time.
    Thanks for sharing these outcomes around. Good occupation [</br9>https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/forex1496047596.png[/img]

  7. #347
    Hi All,

    Been after this ( other) train of thought because the start and straight back in late April did a rapid mechanical backtest and because there was some curiosity believed I Would post my findings here.

    PLEASE NOTICE: This was centered on Oct 07 - Apr 08 NF info - 7 months of information is most probably PERHAPS NOT statistically important ... but as I mentioned above it was a fast evaluation to see if DIBS was workable as an entry system and 7 months is all I really could readily export from MT4 in the time.

    CHECK PARAMETERS:

    Pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF USD/JPY
    Times: All IB's 0600 GMT - 1600 GMT ... additionally 0500 GMT if an IB
    Daily Open: 0600 GMT
    Entry: Bar Large 1 if above daily open, Tavern low -1 if beneath daily open - spread comprised (oanda)
    Cease: At tavern low/large as appropriate.

    As this was a rapid mechanical evaluation all I analyzed was what the upper limit % profit attained prior to being stopped outside.

    RESULTS:

    Pair__ ____#T __1:1__1:2_1:3_1:4_1:5__1:10___%1:1
    EUR/USD - 137 - 66 - 41 - 2-9 - 25 - 23 - 17 ------48.1%
    GBP/USD - 125 - 72 - 52 - 43 - 3 2 - 26 - 12 ------57.6%
    USD/JPY - 139 - 6-1 - 3-7 - 27 - 2 3 - 1-9 - 7 --------43.8%
    USD/CHF - 138 - 5 7 - 3-5 - 27 - 2-3 - 2 1 - 14 ------41.3%

    In essesence 50% of trades attain a T least 1:1 R prior to being stopped outside.

    Utilizing the above mentioned amounts you are able to optimise a % established TP ... but this changes from currency to currency and provided the short time frame of the evaluation to foundation any method on this would be curve fitting and nearly sure to drop cash.

    Still Another factor worth-mentioning is the trend (centered on weekly) had small noticeable impact on statistics besides the typical maximum %profit attained ... and this was due to a few extream trades that managed to remain in for the complete run netting nicely in excessive of 100% ... could this be the stage???

    My conclusion was that as a mechanical entry method it displays a lot of guarantee ... the key to which makes it lucrative comes right down to trade choice, direction and departures ... and of course practise practise practise

    I consider backtesting supplies dimishing returns and commenced ahead examining this system-in demo two weeks past using computer shut half at 1:1 and trailing stops behind small s/r amounts. S O I am just taking bar-S till 1300 GMT, Asian time-zone. So significantly:

    10 trades - 5 b/e - 2 wins - 1 reduction - 2 open - closed: 2.3% open 2.5%

    Again assuring ...

  8. #348
    Quote Originally Posted by mirandadecambre
    Hi All,
    RESULTS:

    Pair__ ____#T __1:1__1:2_1:3_1:4_1:5__1:10___%1:1
    EUR/USD - 137 - 66 - 41 - 2-9 - 25 - 2-3 - 17 ------48.1%
    GBP/USD - 125 - 72 - 52 - 43 - 3 2 - 26 - 12 ------57.6%
    USD/JPY - 139 - 6-1 - 3-7 - 27 - 2 3 - 1-9 - 7 --------43.8%
    USD/CHF - 138 - 5 7 - 3-5 - 27 - 2-3 - 2-1 - 14 ------41.3%
    mirandadecambre
    Fantastic job! An issue though: Does the 1:2 column reveal how several trades of the 1:1 that attained 1:2, and 1:3 reveal how several trades of these that attained 1:2 ultimately reched 1:3 and therefore on?

  9. #349
    Quote Originally Posted by pere_pjb
    Hey

    I'm convinced it was intended like you composed. It cannot be otherwise , because any 1:2 should have been through 1:1 , and therefore on ..
    Yeah, nicely that signifies that ~10% attained 10:1 which isnt bad at all...

  10. #350
    Quote Originally Posted by champid
    Great job! A query although: Does the 1:2 column reveal how several trades of the 1:1 that attained 1:2, and 1:3 reveal how several trades of these that attained 1:2 ultimately reched 1:3 and therefore on?
    Hey

    I'm convinced it was intended like you composed. It cannot be otherwise , because any 1:2 should have been through 1:1 , and therefore on ..

  11. #351
    Still Another facet to consider:

    In spite of little % risk you can nevertheless have adequate standing size, given modest SL range of IB.

    No motive to contemplate unneeded sizeable % risk.


    Thanks,
    T S

    [quote=Dalariel86;2025091]
    Quote Originally Posted by Carmen
    Personally I believe with merely 1% you'll be able to make and lose fairly enough cash fairly quickly. Higher risk mechanically raises theoretical(statistical) likelihood of broke-out even in a great win/reduction ratio.

    Need To concur. Specially here. This strategy is likely to be a reduced risk strategy. The point is to risk , several times that are small and attempt to catch a runner occasionally. In the event that you are trading it correctly you will find a couple of long running trades that can provide you with the opportunity to bring your spot(s) to break-even and as it goes farther in your favor mo Re set ups may seem, letting you add on and construct your standing while retaining risk in balance.
    Do Not shift the low risk facet by using on too-large of a preliminary place. There will probably be the time to addon in case the trade works out.
    SmallerFirst places will enable you to probe for the runners without fast drawdowns.

  12. #352
    Quote Originally Posted by negus1976
    This is apparently an extremely great,solid and rational system but it really is very hard to backtest because you CAn't merely consider the cable for instance and begin backtesting because one among the golden principles imho of the system would be to trade the currency pair that reveals the most momentum in a particular way and in order that it could be,for want of a much better word,wrong to only trade every sign u access it any particular pair without using momentum in to account.

    Essentially what I'm getting at is that it's challenging to backtest and if anyone h-AS any thought of exactly what the win/reduction ratio of the system is I'd be quite happy should they might share it.[</br9>https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/forex1496047598.png[/img]
    I'll make one enormous purpose as of this juncture.

    The proven fact a promising uncomplicated system is tough to backtest should be a flashing-light to you personally.

    A great thing.

    Any Such Thing simple to execute and analyze is, in addition, simple to ruin. DIBS could be harder because no both of you'll trade the notion precisely the same manner, to ruin.

    --

    PS: I'm amazed with all the effort therefore several of you've expended. -mirandadecambre- Within your dislocation of prospective profits you've given away the largest possibility of the approach. PC

  13. #353
    Thanks mirandadecambre.

    Few intense trades netting above 100% indicates 1:100?

    T S

    Quote Originally Posted by mirandadecambre
    Hi All,

    Been after this ( other) train of thought because the start and again in late April did a rapid mechanical backtest and because there was some curiosity thought I Would post my findings here.

    PLEASE NOTE: This was centered on Oct 07 - Apr 08 NF information - 7 months of information is not likely statistically important ... but as I mentioned above it was a fast evaluation to see if DIBS was workable as an entry system and 7 months is all I really could readily export from MT4 in the time.

    CHECK PARAMETERS:

    Pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF USD/JPY
    Times: All IB's 0600 GMT - 1600 GMT ... additionally 0500 GMT if an IB
    Daily Open: 0600 GMT
    Entrance: Pub High 1 if above daily open, Bar reduced -1 if below daily open - spread comprised (oanda)
    Cease: At tavern low/high as appropriate.

    As it was a rapid mechanical evaluation all I analyzed was what the upper limit % profit attained prior to being stopped outside.

    RESULTS:

    Pair__ ____#T __1:1__1:2_1:3_1:4_1:5__1:10___%1:1
    EUR/USD - 137 - 66 - 41 - 29 - 25 - 2 3 - 17 ------48.1%
    GBP/USD - 125 - 72 - 52 - 43 - 3 2 - 26 - 12 ------57.6%
    USD/JPY - 139 - 6 1 - 37 - 27 - 2 3 - 1 9 - 7 --------43.8%
    USD/CHF - 138 - 57 - 35 - 27 - 2 3 - 2 1 - 14 ------41.3%

    In essesence 50% of trades attain at least 1:1 R prior to being stopped outside.

    Utilizing the above mentioned amounts you are able to optimise a % established TP ... but this changes from currency to currency and provided the short time frame of the evaluation to base any method on this would be curve fitting and nearly sure to lose funds.

    Another factor worth mentioning is the trend (based on weekly) had small noticeable impact on statistics besides the common maximum %profit attained ... and this was due to a few extream trades that managed to remain in for the complete run netting nicely in excess of 100% ... could this be the stage???

    My summary was that as a mechanical entry method it exhibits many guarantee ... the key to rendering it lucrative comes down to trade choice, direction and departures ... and of course practise practise practise

    I consider backtesting supplies dimishing returns and commenced ahead examining this system-in demo two weeks past using computer near half a T 1:1 and trailing stops behind small s/r amounts. Therefore I am just taking bar S till 1300 GMT, Asian time zone. So far:

    10 trades - 5 b/e - 2 wins - 1 reduction - 2 open - closed: 2.3% open 2.5%

    Again assuring ...

    mirandadecambre

  14. #354
    Quote Originally Posted by mariajesuspt
    I will make one enormous point as of this juncture.

    The proven fact that the promising uncomplicated system is tough to backtest should be a flashing-light to you personally.

    A positive thing.

    Something simple to execute and analyze is, in addition, simple to ruin. DIBS could be harder because no both of you'll trade the notion precisely the same manner, to ruin.

    -mariajesuspt-

    PS: I'm amazed with all the effort therefore several of you've expended. -mirandadecambre- Within your dislocation of prospective profits you've given away the finest possibility of the approach. PC
    You got me with that! Concur 110%

    The attractiveness of this this technique lies on its astounding ease. In this scenario, less is undoubtedly mo-Re.

    I Have been following your places considering that the start, but this one I colud perhaps not resist to respond.

    Thanks a lot Peter for revealing these notions to us. My eyes actually opened.

    Cheers! [</br9>https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/forex1496047600.png[/img]

  15. #355
    Quote Originally Posted by mariajesuspt
    I will make one enormous point as of this juncture.

    The proven fact a promising uncomplicated system is tough to backtest should be a flashing-light to you personally.
    ...

    -mariajesuspt-

    PS: I'm amazed with all the effort therefore several of you've expended. -mirandadecambre- Within your dislocation of prospective profits you've given away the best possibility of the approach. PC
    Hello Peter, thank you for dropping in... ( Areas a complete pot of Columbian COFFEE [</br9>https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/forex1496047602.png[/img]} on PC's Dining Table.)

    It's a Mazing exactly how lots of people need to be Dealers however do not need to have to Believe about it. I Ponder, have you got an EA to Quantify Dealer Discretion or The Warm Hand

    Sorry Peter, I understand how ridiculess that's but I really could simply begin to see the question coming.

    Men, I know most of you realize this but,
    How can you Backtest a Discretionary system?

    ABC is in a Flat Station going straight back 4 months. During that 4 Months it's has received 26 Daily IB's. Am I Investing it? He|| no. But it is gonna Commerce on a Backtest.

    MARCH 11th 2008
    Peter Crown's First Post for this great Forum.
    That's the way I remembered it.
    I Have been a way from the CME for 9 years. I significantly somewhat trade from my home-office. Less sound.
    The sole pressure on me is what I put on myself. A fact that's usually held accurate, even if it wasn't recognized by me.
    Peter

    Not however 3 months and we've several ideas on approaches to improve on this particular Discretionary System.

    HI! WAKE UP
    If you-can't manage to Forwards Examine this Strategy with Real Cash,
    A T Least, Onward Analyze it with Demo Cash.
    The Process Works but,
    YOU, could be necessary to consider some Coaching Alterations.

    [</br9>https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/forex1496047604.png[/img]

  16. #356
    Quote Originally Posted by mariajesuspt
    I will make one enormous point as of this juncture.

    The proven fact that the promising uncomplicated system is tough to backtest should be a flashing-light to you personally.

    A positive thing.

    Something simple to execute and analyze is, in addition, simple to ruin. DIBS could be harder because no both of you'll trade the notion precisely the same manner, to ruin.

    -mariajesuspt-

    PS: I'm amazed with all the effort therefore several of you've expended. -mirandadecambre- Within your dislocation of prospective profits you've given away the largest possibility of the approach. PC
    Peter,

    Just desired to lose a word-of thanks for all the tips which you have shared and for functioning as a trigger for better trading for me personally.

    Thanks again

  17. #357
    This is my first post since joining FF, even though I've drifted several times as a visitor.
    borlam69's stage is one which stands out the mo Re you drift, some quite great, promising methods are ruined by 'add this, I presume this, It did not perform for me' sort of tactic. Discretionary trading methods WOULD BE the approach to go...but you got to just work at it. No program, of whatever sort, can replace the mind of a well-informed, seasoned trader, that simply comes froms from trading. So please men girls...'IF IT AIN'T BROKE..............'
    Operate with it.
    My thanks to Peter, to borlam69, for a excellent system. To everybody else to get a thread that is excellent, a forum that is great.

    (It's astounding exactly how lots of people need to be Dealers however do not need to have to Believe about it. I Question, have you got an EA to Quantify Dealer Discretion or The Warm Hand
    How can you Backtest a Discretionary system?
    Perhaps Not yet ninety days and we've several suggestions about approaches to improve on this particular Discretionary Program.)

  18. #358
    Quoted from borlam69 -

    'HELLO! WAKE UP
    If you-can't manage to Forwards Examine this Strategy with Real Cash,
    A-T Least, Onward Analyze it with Demo Cash.
    The Process Works but,
    YOU, could be necessary to consider some Training Alterations.'

    I do not consider there's any other means to practically analyze any system/process etc. You can by all signifies place some indexes on a chart and look-back to determine whenever they are specially and effective in case you look in the chart from proper to left they'll appear superb, even the worst program may seem good from this angle!

    With any system, regardless of how great, there's no accounting for the private advice of the consumer. Jack O and so forth it'd be nirvana for all, if we all could trade like Peter Crowns. Regrettably we all introduce characters and our very own tweaks into our trading. That's the reason borlam69's trace is spot-on, you need to trade the program you to ultimately see the way that it performs for you personally. Truly I'd go beyond borlam69, neglect demo trading it really is a waste of time if you don't intend on becoming a perpetual student of forex trading. I've found where it is possible to trade for pennies, that will be much more gratifying and realistic a strategy to check some thing out, others urge areas.

    Sorry to barge in to your own house borlam69, only desired to agree along with your opinions. No java?? I comprehend! Where does one hail from btw, I discover an extremely Scottish heritage here?

    rgds, .

  19. #359
    Quote Originally Posted by borlam69
    Hi Peter, thank you for dropping in... (borlam69 sets a complete pot of Columbian COFFEE [</br9>https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/forex1496047605.png[/img]} on computer Dining Table.)

    It's a Mazing exactly how lots of people need to be Dealers however do not need to have to Believe about it. I Ponder, have you got an EA to Quantify Dealer Discretion or The Warm Hand

    Sorry Peter, I understand how ridiculess that's but I really could simply see the question coming.

    Men, I know most of you realize this but,
    How can you Backtest a Discretionary system?

    ABC is in a Flat Station going straight back 4 months. During that 4 Months it's has received 26 Daily IB's. Am I Investing it? He|| no. But it is gonna Commerce on a Backtest.

    MARCH 11th 2008
    Peter Crown's First Post for this great Forum.
    That's the way I remembered it.
    I Have been a way from the CME for 9 years. I significantly somewhat trade from my home-office. Less sound.
    The only real pressure on me is what I put on myself. A fact that's usually held accurate, even if it wasn't recognized by me.
    Peter

    Maybe Not however 3 months and we've several ideas on approaches to improve on this particular Discretionary System.

    HELL O! WAKE UP
    If you-can't manage to Forwards Examine this Strategy with Real Cash,
    A T Least, Onward Analyze it with Demo Cash.
    The Process Works but,
    YOU, could be demanded totake some Training Changes.

    [</br9>https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/forex1496047607.png[/img]
    Hi, borlam69...

    I've merely quoted this special post in the DIBS train of thought...

    Someone (whom I estimate haven't read Peter's and your posts...[</br9>https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/forex1496047609.png[/img]) inquired if we should perhaps not be a bit discretionary with this particular system?

    I estimate your post clears all of the issue... [</br9>https://forexintuitive.com/attachments/forex1496047611.png[/img]

    Cheers

  20. #360
    showthread.php?p=2028537#post2028537 Disliked ...

    Sorry to barge in to your own property , Disregarded Ach, a way 'n' bile yer heed. The doorway 's never loaked.

    showthread.php?p=2028537#post2028537 Disliked btw, I discover an incredibly Scottish heritage here, where can you hail from?

    rgds, FLAQUISIMO101. Discounted No Mean City. Glasgow.

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