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Thread: 38 consecutive wins, 0 losses = win?

  1. #1

    38 consecutive wins, 0 losses = win?

    Hello,
    My father is a Forex beginner and that I understand nothing about Foreign Exchange at all. A couple of days ago my dad created an algorithm he is analyzing using play money. This algorithm has afforded 38 successive triumphs for him, although his notions failed. Could this simply be a coincidence, or does he actually have something here? He's hesitant to trust that the newcomer like him could produce this powerful cash- machine rapidly.

    What are your ideas on this?

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by hadexis
    Hi,
    My father is a Forex beginner and that I understand nothing about Foreign Exchange at all. A couple of days ago my dad created an algorithm he is analyzing using play money. This algorithm has afforded 38 successive triumphs for him, although his notions failed. Could this simply be a coincidence, or does he actually have something here? He's hesitant to trust that the newcomer like him could produce this powerful cash- machine rapidly.

    What are your ideas on this?
    What's risked in each trade compared to what it won? There are means of weeping and trading with big stops that could win 99% of the time-but the one time it loses consequences in account injury that is disastrous.

    If its a good proportion of risk vs benefit then I'd run more tests before you get 100 or so trades.

  3. #3
    How do I quantify the risk v.s reward?

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by hadexis View Post
    How do I quantify the risk v.s reward?
    To begin, what dimension money are you currently working with?

  5. #5
    Danger to reward may be set only, in the event you make $100 on a trade and you risked $50 at your stop loss amount your risk to reward is 2:1.

    It will be unrealistic to me for 38 triumphs in a row notably day trading, I'm sorry if that offends you-but I see hundreds of so-called forex robots that promise high % win rates but the losses are FIVE TIMES instances the risk or maybe more. Examine how big is the stop loss or possibly assess oneself the programme may be glancing to the back evaluation results?

    I advocate risk should be 1.5 to two times your stop loss from my trading experience anyhow.

    cheers

    Darren

  6. #6
    It is likely to reverse heads 38 times in AROW too, although highly improbable. Trading receiving odds on your own side and is a lot about data. It can not prove significantly other than mo-Re screening is desired, although one run of 38 is remarkable for practically any strategy. Wait several months and after that assess the outcomes. Until then inform your dad to help keep his dayjob.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by miyukiyuny
    It is potential to flip heads 38 times in AROW too, although highly improbable. Trading receiving odds on your own side and is a lot about data. It can not prove significantly other than mo-Re screening is desired, although one run of 38 is remarkable for practically any strategy. Wait several months and after that assess the outcomes. Until then inform your dad to help keep his day job.
    To flip a coin 38 times in AROW you'd need 10 to the ability of 30 folks playing one-onone. Can anybody please give me-an example of an algorithm that may win 90 instances in AROW when it does but drop huge?

  8. #8
    I concur miyukiyuny.With a superb risk to reward ratio the triumph rate might be lower and nevertheless start to develop your account steadily, trading has got the misconception you will be a millionaire over evening (yes I attempted it ,LOL) but after you get a system subsequently comes area, psych, over trading after which greed.

    Most methods or notions work but human intervention occurs and a demo account finally are just great in case you trade methodically, use your right place sizing stop losses and objectives etc. Demonstration's is treated by folks together with the idea as it's not my actual cash that it's not actual I'll take this time to that trade.

    Trading is an incredible ride and also a real pa In in the booty also as straight back screening h AS one point live trading does not have that's hind sight.

    Recall in case you can not manage to free it do not trade then.

    Cheers Darren

  9. #9
    Hey partner

    Go check always out the fab turbo trading site and examine the the miniature triumphs and after that consider the losses. You'll discover the last 10 trades profit will be wiped out by one reduction. Now which is rough trading

  10. #10
    Mate, I reckon attempt it and see
    good luck in the creation of your method

  11. #11
    Have your pops open a live account with 20% of his yearly wages. His strategy being used by trade it for 2000 trades that are stay. When you are doing that Iwant to learn your return.

    Consider me, the variation in demo trading and stay trading is like:

    Demo - you perform a computer game and swim with all the sharks.
    Actual -you get dropped off in the centre of the pacific ocean and ALSO YOU swim with all the sharks without any protective cage or tools while chum has been poured around you.

    That Is The the variation in intensity from phony cash to real cash. Regardless of what you believe, you handle or will not trade a demo account like a stay account.


    EDIT: I Will a DD this also. When it is all stated and completed, your Yield is what is significant. In case you don't correctly handle your cash and your trade you may have 1000 victor in a row a loser and nevertheless wipe-out your account.

  12. #12
    attempt it on micro using a live account, then see the way that it goes.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by miyukiyuny
    It is potential to flip heads 38 times in AROW too, although tremendously unlikely.
    might be potential, but I question it is actually been completed.

  14. #14
    its perhaps not difficult, just extremely unlikely. keep analyzing it for the forthcoming months and see what occurs. Possibly the 38 triumphs was a fluke, but nonetheless have 2:1 winning streak, in the event you'd 1-9 losses from the 38 youd of course depending what your risk-reward ratio is, it might still be an unfavorable consequence.

  15. #15
    Arbitrary opportunity determined by the variables you put in. By simply accepting considerable amounts of drawdown, it is possible to rack up a winrate like that. If you don't understand why money is made by a trading strategy in phrases of how a markets basically work in conditions of where orders, stop losses, and huge associations are gunning for, you are not definitely going to help you to t-AKE a ride-on their coat-tails.

    Everyone in the E A neighborhood believes that if they merely discover the golden ratio of variants, they could uncover a method that may consistently make them cash. However, the thing about data is, you're able to tailor your E A to meet the past. That really doesn't mean it'll have any prediction ability for the future. For instance, perhaps there's a bias in the lotto to get some amount to appear in the initial draw. So what? The opportunity of a 5 showing up is nonetheless 1 in 10 assuming we are speaking about 0-9 here. The first-round is insignificant. that it arrived up in 9/10 of the last appeals to

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