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Thread: Training journal

  1. #1
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    Training journal

    This journal would be to record my analysis, strategy and logic for entering trades
    This is an exercise journal utilizing a demo account


    Note to Self:

    Trade Decision Process
    1. Identify Fundamental Opportunity - Draw hyperlinks from news, Logic
    2. Create Trade Plan - Expected reactions, Expected TP and SL, Momentum, Swaps
    3. Time the Entry - Technicals
    4. Manage and track the Trade - Is my forecast Being justified by Andre1 movements? Any fundamental change if trend? Stay in the trade or get out?

    Update:
    I wish to add one more step after drawing up a trade program. That could be come up with all of the techniques the program may fail and to critic the strategy. Counter plan counter plan I 'll will be called by me Thereafter my original program will be compared by me together with the counter plan to see if the trade is nonetheless worth executing. This evaluation procedure will help keep me out of trades that are badly prepared.
    _________________________________

    News Analysis Considerations
    - Immediate, Short (lt5 times), Medium (5 times ~ 3 Month) and Long Term (GT-3 Months) Impact of News
    - Divergence/Possibility between time influence of news
    - Context of News/Figures
    - Expectations prior to the news

    Nuggets to self
    - Market tend to over react to news. Especially when its negative
    - Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful
    - Buy the rumours, sell the details
    - Fail to Plan, Plan to Fail
    - It is better to ppruina a profitable trade than to catch a dropping one
    - Don't place all your eggs in one basket - Diversify
    - 8% Fundamental, 2% Technical
    - Only risk everything you're ready to shed
    - Cut your losers if you are proven wrong, maybe not when the losses begin to hurt
    - You should be ready to shed all of your profits in order to catch a huge move
    - You win some, you drop some. Achievement is determined by one trade dont.
    - Take a rest from trading after having a reduction - Trust me, it assists
    - Revenge trade is suicide - DON T DO IT
    - Losing trades are lessons, not failues
    - never spot a trade when you're not considering right
    - Hope kills - Don't hope! Have contingencies
    - To secure ourselves against defeat is based on our own hands, but the possibility of defeating the enemy is offered by the enemy himself - Prevent the loss in your richesse and wait for the market to supply you with a you having a trading chance

    ____________________

    Open Positions:

    Short - Gbpnzd @1.762, #2-6
    Long - US 30y T-Bond @157, #32

    _____________________

    Pending Positions:

    ____________________
    Pending Trade Idea:

    Long - Brent Crude

  2. #2
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    2 Attachment(s) 25/05/2017
    _______________
    Gbp
    - Economic indicators indicates a slowing inflation
    - First quarter gdp of 0.2% is lower than predicted. Currency should drop in the mid-term in case it continues this way.
    - Manchester event and elevating of security-level to crucial should trigger the pound to drop in the short term. But should recuperate in the middle term unless such a incident occurs again
    - Election on 8 June is a large question mark. Unsure what the reactions will likely be Ast. May is predicted to win
    - Brexit should trigger gbp to drop in the long run as organizations including banks seek to re-locate their hq else where in europe and EU are seeking to impose large penalty due to their withdrawal. Although Britain did say should they fail to come to consensus they are going to walk from negotiations. The re-location of organizations needs to be enough to tank the gbp.

    Fundamentally looks just like a mid-long term shorting possibility
    ___________________________________
    Zar
    - Talks of ousting of Zuma pushed Zar up, but treatment should be taken as it's just rumours. Short phrase undoubtedly a bull shift. However the -long term effect of this is blended. As this is just discuss and care should be taken. Zar could drop back, if Zuma were to stay in in place.
    - High interest rate offers carry chance

    ___________________________________


    Weekly charts shows gbp/zar resuming the bear shift after retracement
    Daily chart comfirms this with what seems like a heads and shoulders development constructing

    Plan
    Limit order set in the foot of the neck which is 16.5 on my charts
    Ill be weary if Andre1 goes above 18.4. Any fundamental news to comfirm a change in trend and I'll close out a T a reduction

    Looking to diversify short gbp placement with other currencies. Usd maybe not stable right now. Oil prices may affect jpy. Considering Chf for short-mid-term as swaps will consume in to gains/include to losses

    Update 26/5/2017 HT21#2017e 26/5/2017
    Apparent26/5#2017ng Chf for short-mid term as swaps will eat into gains/add to losses Update 26/5#20172017ng Chf for short-mid term as swaps will eat into gains/add to losses Update 26/5/2017 Apparently traders are disappointed in the depth of the oil cut, therefore oil prices fell back-down. Invalidating my speculation of Jpy being affected by oil
    Limit Order triggered


  3. #3
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    2 Attachment(s) 26/05/2017
    __________________

    Jpy
    - Core CPI raises for 4th straight months, signaling the economy choosing picking right on up. Gdp development nonetheless in optimistic but nothing unique here. Based on news resource, inflation rate is nevertheless nowhere-near 2%. If inflation momentum proceeds, Jpy should rise albeit I question it'll be by much
    - Apart from this, Japan is well known due to their competitive devaluation of the yen. I see that over time, progress of the yen will not be large. Possible even placing it in range
    - Oil prices which have a minor correlation with Jpy as Japan are large importer of oil, are being sold about the dissapointment that cuts are perhaps not as deep needlessly to say. Relieving problems that Jpy could drop
    - Negative swap is the priority

    Overall, Jpy seems just like a feasible cross to diversify the shorting of gbp. Except for swap that is unfavorable. My forecast is that the mid-term will be held regular for by Jpy.

    Weekly charts shows a downtrend since 2015. However a recovery/retracement after 20 17.
    Daily Charts exhibits a lower large forming. Limit entry will undoubtedly be put below swing reduced which is 143.3 on my charts. Seeking to hold this pair provided that gains gt; swaps that are unfavorable.
    As charts are offering somewhat blended indicators, any news when Andre1 is finished 14-9 and I 'll close out in a loss.

    Update 26/05/2017
    Limit entry triggered to day
    Im slightly over 50 pips in profit. Might consider relocating SL allow my profits operate and to BE. Probably once Andre1 reaches under 142


  4. #4
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    26/05/2017
    ___________________

    Usd
    - Sluggish economic information for the past 2 quarter, below anticipations
    - Trump administration has not truly completed anything considerable s O far. Its. My see is this is treading on thin ice.
    - Interest rate hike 2 or THREE TIMES occasions is nevertheless however to be comfirmed. Announcement either way may trigger huge short phrase swings
    - White home drama creating dollar to drop. I sense its noise. But it's the possible to deliver dollar crashing if realised

    Update
    Gdp better than anticipated, revised to 1.2% from 0.7%. Causing a spike in usd. I suspect it's an over-reaction. May revert in the short phrase

    However, economic info nevertheless isnt conclusive on a direction. Until further news to cement a bias in Usd. I 'll opt to keep on the sides
    Until further news to cement a bias in Usd. I 'll opt to keep on the sides

  5. #5
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    28/05/2017
    _____________

    - UK Polls displays Conservative leading by 1-4%. If the margin gets too shut throughout the on coming week, I may closeout my gbp positions
    - UK lowers safety from essential to serious
    - No specific news from G-7 summit that has much influence on FX markets


    Key Events 29/05/2017 ~ 02/06/2017

    Gbp
    Manufacturing PMI, Thursday 01/06/2017. Expected fall to 56.5 from 57.3
    Construction PMI, Friday 02/06/2017. Expected drop to 52.7 from 53.1

    A dropin both readings will improve my opinion that gbp is acquiring weaker


    Usd
    Personal Income Personal Spending, Tuesday 30/05/2017. Both are predicted to to increase to 0.4%.
    CB Consumer Confidence. Expected fall to 120.1 from 120.3
    Pending Home Sales, Wednesday 31/05/2017. Expected to to increase to 0.7% from -0.8%
    FMOC Kaplan speaks
    Chicago PMI. Expected fall to 5 7 from 58.3
    Unemployment Claims, Thursday 01/06/2017. Expected rise to 239k from 234k
    Manufacturing PMI. Expected 54.7 from 54.8
    Crude Oil Inventories. No forecast
    Non-Farm Payroll***, Friday 02/06/2017. Expected 186k from 211k
    Unemployment Rate. Expected to stay a T 4.4%
    Trade Balance. Expected -45.5B from -43.7B
    Average Hourly Earnings. Expected fall to 0.2% from 0.3%

    Alot of news for Usd this week. Will be monitoring them determine and to decide to try a bias in the Usd. Furthermore, volatility will be undoubtedly caused by Trump news.

    Update 29/05/2017
    _____________________

    Usd
    Just had an unexpected believed concerning the curiosity rate hike in june. Based on news. It truly is currently being costing 60 70% possibility of a hike. The hike looks unlikely. I figured that it could be a high-probability trade to short the 2500 before the june rate hike announcement. In the event the hike does as the news might be sold by traders occur. When the hike doesnt happen, or usd will visit a spike down. This will be a speedy scalp thou.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by
    25/05/2017 _______________ Gbp - Economic indicators indicates a slowing inflation - First quarter gdp of 0.2% is lower than predicted. Currency should drop in the mid-term in case it continues this way. - elevating and Manchester incident of security-level to crucial should trigger the pound to drop in the short term. Unless such a incident occurs again, but should recuperate in the middle term - Election on 8 June is a large question mark. Unsure what the reactions will likely be Ast. May is predicted to win - Brexit should trigger gbp to drop in the long run...
    Over the weekend, Zuma's party (ANC) debates movement to eliminate him. I doubt it'll have much optimistic effect on the Zar for Zar to appreciate and as discuss have however to materialize, but it raises the probability for Zuma to be ousted.

    Update 29/05/2017
    Zar rises on announcement that ANC committee didn't to keep a no-confidence vote against Zuma. Increasing his odds of survival. This along with with gbp re-covering the other day somewhat in the drop indicates my placement is at a negative balance. I support the the perspective that these are noise actions. Mid-Extended operate see is nevertheless bearish for gbp/zar

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by
    26/05/2017 __________________ Jpy - Core CPI raises for 4th straight months, signaling the economy choosing picking right on up. Gdp development nonetheless in optimistic but nothing unique here. Based on news resource, inflation rate is nevertheless nowhere-near 2%. If inflation momentum proceeds, Jpy should rise albeit I question it'll be by much - Apart from this, Japan is well known due to their competitive devaluation of the yen. I see that over time, progress of the yen will not be large. Possible even placing it in range - Oil prices which have a minor correlation with Jpy as Japan...
    29/0502017
    _____________

    Andre1 hit below 142.15 before bouncing back-up. I had assume Andre1 to not move significantly after asian session as UK and US are on vacations today
    Reminder to shift SL to BE after Andre1 reaches under 14-2

  8. #8
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    Update 29/05/2017
    ________________________

    Gbp produced up several losses therefore significantly to day. However it's in my see this is portion of the volatility. Still keeping my bear bias

    Update 30/05/2017
    _______________________

    UK polls displays conservative lead cut to 5%. No main re Action from Andre1 however. Ill observe London and US session to create my choice

  9. #9
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    30/05/2017
    ____________

    News of Greece probably maybe not spending bail out triggered a down spike in Eur. I took an impulse short on eurjpy a T 123.881. Buying the rumour, marketing the the important points. Set TP a-T 123.5 as I deem this to be a short lived shift. Will be viewing Andre1 carefully to ex IT once I see the downward momentum is dropped and upward momentum is developing

    Update 30/05/2017
    TP induced while I was a-way from the display

  10. #10
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    30/05/2017
    _____________

    Based off my speculation of the 75000 in post 5. Coupled with house mess that was white. If economic information arrives weak I'm looking to short 75000.

    Possible currencies to pair are safeheaven currencies jpy, chf.

    Considering Zar on account of my optimism about them
    Gold/silver is also on my thought listing

    Update
    US information fulfilled expectations, signaling that bad information in q1 reelected a transitionary period. Consumer self-confidence dips somewhat below expectation. However, the dip is tiny compared to gains that are previous. Thats all news launch for to day. Im progressively creating a bias that is bullish for 67146. Lets see what other economic data states...

  11. #11
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    31/05/2017
    _______________

    I observe an enormous divergence regarding oil news and Andre1.
    OPEC cut oil creation but the market is marketing oil.
    I suspect this is a robust over reaction. Possible getting chance here. Shall observe for awhile longer before entering

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by
    Update 29/05/2017 ________________________ Gbp produced up several losses therefore significantly to day. However it's in my see this is portion of the volatility. Still keeping my bear bias Update 30/05/2017 _______________________ UK polls exhibits conservative lead cut to 5%. No main re Action from Andre1 however. Ill observe London and US session to generate my decision
    The polls are scaring gbp traders, which is excellent news if you ask me. Ill most probably TP before election outcomes as Andre1 will most probably bouce backup if T.May wins

    Update
    _________

    Just as I mentioned it, gbp jumped backup. The only point I will link it with is to the better-then- money offer that is predicted.

    Danm, Germany stated they will continue to work with UK after brexit. This will definitely relief stress on the economy of UK as wellAct as a motivator for other nations to follow suit.
    I see this as transforming the fundamental trend of gbp. I 'm likely to to see till the finish of the week and possibly seem to exit with minimum losses

    Update 2
    _________

    Exited all my positions following the rally in gbp, simply take whatever losses now rather than permit them snow ball

  13. #13
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    31/05/2017
    ____________

    Zar acquiring weaker. Possibly nevertheless due to Zuma's survival... Watching gbpzar extremely carefully. I 'm still sticking with my program of SL after 18.4
    Jpy pair still in profit

    Update
    US Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales arrived in worse than predicted. Placing doubts on my sentiment that is somewhat bullish. This is one challenging currency

  14. #14
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    1 Attachment(s) 02/06/2017
    _____________

    US information for the week is blended.
    NFP fell short creating sell off in the 75000 even thou unemployment was better than predicted. I suspect this sell-off to be short lived. Nevertheless, the total readings in-may gave a take on on the 2500 to me. June I'll be shorting the dollar until interest rate selection on 1-4. My guess is that there mightn't be a rate hike. I foresee massive profit getting hence driving the dollar lower even if there was.
    I will probably be pairing 75000 against nzd as their economy is very secure in my own view. Possibly incorporating extra placement on the jpy crosses or other currencies that I deem essentially secure

    Nzd/2500
    Short-term bullish see
    Betting on nz economy remaining steady while us to continue to generate more negative economic information along with a feasible no hike in june 1-4. Also as news of a no third hike
    Trumps impeachment nevertheless behind my thoughts supporting this trade

    Entered through market order at 0.7136 as it appears like it'd damaged resistance
    Will shift SL to BE once Andre1 reaches over 0.724
    TP goal 0.735 as the pair seems like it's in a longterm range
    SL is any necessarily poor news and Andre1 below 0.7

  15. #15
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    1 Attachment(s) 02/06/2017
    ____________

    gbpusd
    I did a scalp by fading the NFP
    This move was centered on the logic that market tend to over-react on negative news
    I acknowledge it was a very dangerous move but it was just this type of tempting possibility when the trade thought arrived to my head and that I was prepared to risk that a-Mount
    I selected gbpusd as gbp is eventually really weak and that I see it as the prime pair to re-trace. And I had been proven right
    It all occurred therefore quickly that I forgot to consider notice of the prices
    I entered through market order after I saw a pinbar-like candle forming
    Initially had my TP right prior to the swing reduced with a few allowance but manually closed out as the lengthy wick for the reason that candle produced my scared
    Could have acquired 12ish pips but concluded up with 5 pips. Ohwells... I I suppose some profit is better than no profit

    Learning points from using this trade:
    - DO PERHAPS NOT TRADE WITH FEELINGS, I allow my feelings inform me to ex IT early
    - Always have a trade strategy, I did properly in that factor

    Overall I felt it was an okay trade. I had a strategy but I did maybe not adhere to it

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by
    31/05/2017 _______________ I observe a massive divergence regarding oil news and Andre1. Oil is being sold by the market although OPEC cut oil creation. I suspect this is a powerful overreaction. Possible purchasing possibility here. Shall observe for awhile longer before entering
    02/06/2017
    ________________

    Brent crude oil nevertheless heading down to 49ish
    I sh All wait for indications of bear movements ending and a bull movements beginning before entering.
    Favourable entry is going to be a T 4-8 but this is discretionary
    Fundamentally I believe oil Andre1 is under- priced even with all the improved outputs by US
    Looking for long term retracement to reasonable Andre1, around 54 - 5 6 zone
    SL will be below 4 6 and any fundamental negative news

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by
    quote The polls are scaring gbp investors, which is excellent news if you ask me. Ill most probably TP before election outcomes as Andre1 will most probably bouce back-up if T.May wins Update _________ Just as I stated it, gbp jumped back-up. The only factor I could link it with is to the better-then- money provide that is expected. Danm, Germany mentioned they works after brexit with UK. This will definitely reduction strain on the economy of UK together with act as a motivator for other nations to follow suit. This is viewed by me as transforming the fundamental trend of gbp. I'm really going to observe...
    Have been searching through my previous trades to attempt to learn from from their store. Looking again, I possibly shouldnt have exited these trades centered on just one news. The pound h AS the possible to fall more reduce and also the bull shift was possibly just retracement.
    These trades reemphasized that I must perhaps not allow my feelings rule my head. In this instance, it's worries of substaining reduction and shedding profits. I should be ready to give my profits up basically want in which to stay the trade.

    Gbpzar presently somewhat above 16.5 while gbpjpy around a-T 142.3. I'd still be in the green.

    Update 04/06/2017
    _____________________

    Latest londen attack unfolding. I'm watching very carefully. My condolences go out to the victims.

    However, I can't ignore the economic and political reprecussions that can accompany this attack. Will traders flock a way from uk? My viewpoint is that there'll be a momentary sell-off of the gbp. That will recover in a week. Safety policies may be also talked about by political celebrations of both sides. Which may impact the election. When market opens I anticipate a bear gap for gbp. If there exists an absence of bear motion when market opens and I I may short the pound. On the the belief that Andre1 will catch as much as the news

  18. #18
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    05/06/2017
    ____________

    This week is the choosing week for gbp. Ill be following the 8 june election on the watch for opportunities. My see now is really bearish on gbp. Especially together with the spate of terror attacks grappling UK. Which iview to traders as a robust deterent.

    For 75000, the important occasion will be comey's testimony on thursday. Depending on markets response and the implications, I 'll decide on what things to do with my nzdusd place.
    Other than that, I'm not too concerned with all the economic datas coming out from the US this week. I anticipate readings that are combined. This week, overall, I do perhaps not assume any main bullish 83000 news. Possibly even mo Re bearish news.

    The one studying I will soon be viewing is us crude oil inventory. This will definitely give a clue on whether oil prices will rise/drop in th lengthy operate to me.
    Some analyst anticipate prices to attain $4-5, which I discover really difficult. But because they're two analyst suggesting that quantity or the professional and its particular not just one. I will probably be toggling my limit entry to 46.5 as a precautionary measure.
    There are talks that OPEC may possibly have still another round of cuts. But whether it's enough to increase prices is a huge question mark in my experience.

    Update

    Brent Crude Oil
    Saudi, Egypt, UAE and Bahrain cut diplomatic ties with Qatar delivering oil prices up.
    As I 'm uncertain of the extended-expression implications of this, my self-confidence of a bullish re-bound have now been hampered. I 'll momentary hold-out on taking a placement in brent crude till I 've a clearer comprehending

  19. #19
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    06/06/2017
    _____________

    I have already been observing that brent crude oil keep bouncing off somewhat below $4 9. I suspect this may be organizations constructing a long position at this le Vel. I really could be incorrect thou.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by
    06/06/2017 _____________ I have already been observing that brent crude oil keep bouncing off somewhat below $4 9. I suspect this may be organizations constructing a long position at this le Vel. I really could be wrong thou.
    08/06/2017
    _____________
    Brent Crude
    After the unpredicted US crude oil inventories, brent crude falls to sub 47.5 before re covering to around 48. Im dreaming about prices to fall more to even 4-5 or 4-6. I might go long from there

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