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Thread: Training journal

  1. #21
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    It has been a really actionless week up till now. I 'd prefer to consider this chance to emphasize PERSISTENCE.
    If necessary, I'LL carry on for months with no position. Once I meet my standards I shall only enter the market. I need not have an open position at all times.

    Re-emphasize: It is better to ppruina a profitable trade than to catch a dropping one

    Linking this reflection back to my decision making. I believe that staying out from the crude oil trade was a choice that is great.
    As I 'm still not clear on the effect of the the continued qatar stress, opec contract, us and paris offer contract on oil prices. Staying on the sidelines is the option for me personally.

    I also want to emphasize to myself that even though I established a 5% monthly progress goal for myself. My concern would be to stay alive so that I will trade a later date.
    This means not getting huge placement on reckless, un-calculated bets.
    Your money is valuable. Handle it with care that is intense.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by
    02/06/2017 _____________ US information for the week is blended. NFP fell short creating sell off in the 75000 unemployment that was even thou was better than predicted. I suspect this sell-off to be short lived. Nevertheless, the total readings in-may gave a take on on the 2500 to me. June I'll be shorting the dollar until interest rate selection on 1-4. My guess is that there mightn't be a rate hike. I foresee massive profit getting hence driving the dollar lower even if there was. As their economy is very secure in my own view I'll be pairing 75000 against nzd. Possibly incorporating additional...
    Update 08/06/2017

    The pair didn't shift significantly nowadays
    Comey's prepared testimony includes nothing astonishing. But his genuine testimony remains to be viewed.
    US Unemployment statements is above expectations by 5 k, but enhanced from prior month by 10 k. Causing down a tiny spike in this pair, which swiftly re-covered.

    No modifications in my own view with this pair, I 'm prepared to scale in a T 0.72 as I sense that there's possible for 2500 to truly screw-up from now till june 1-4. However, Andre1 is consistently hovering a couple of pips away from it. I 'll preserve my entry Andre1 and not just enter at market Andre1. Good for me personally if I get it. If not, Ill just shrug off it.

    Overall, no fundamental adjustments in my own view for this pair

  3. #23
    This reminds me how I used to keep an entry along with a buddy of mine , and maintaining myself remain highly relevant to market . I used to have most of the market depth in the rear of my head .

    It is good and a lot of hardwork , eventually one will locate a pattern in these analysis and centered on these work one put in , he'll excel in his doings.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arcaya
    This jogs my memory how I used to keep an entry along with a buddy of mine , and maintaining myself remain highly relevant to market . I used to have most of the market depth in the rear of my head . It really is good and a lot of hardwork , eventually one will locate a pattern in these analysis and centered on these work one put in , he'll excel in his doings.
    Thank you extremely significantly.
    I firmly enjoy all trader's views and suggestions.
    I think that through dialogue of trade suggestions and information-sharing, we're all capable to enhance our trading outcomes.

  5. #25
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    Reflection from Comey's testimony
    He started out aggres-sive phoning Trump a liar. My feelings was that this was planning to get fascinating.
    However, no Thing significantly arrived on the scene from it. Andre1 on nzdusd didn't respond significantly.

    Whats intriguing is that Andre1 on this particular pair reacted to uk election talks delivering it down and triggering my 2 nd entry. I have 2 positions in perform.
    I entirely did perhaps not anticipate uk election to impact 2500 that much much.

    UK Election
    Talking about election. Gbp arrived crashing after talks of a hung parliament that was feasible centered on ex IT polls. Being skeptical of the ex IT polls. Before the real answers are are out, no selection shall be made by me. My nzdusd place is included by this too.

    I 'm contemplating a fade the news strategy. On assumption the initial crash is an over reaction, and that Andre1 will revert to an extent to the me an.
    However, together with the likelihood of a real hung parliament, Andre1 may possibly critically crash-even lower.
    One observation which I made is that markets are better prepared prepared now for an urgent outcome. As I 'd anticipated, the fall volatility was perhaps not as big. Recall US and brexit election volatility. This indicates that traders are mo-Re mindful for this particular event, there exists a chance of a no-over-reaction.
    I 'll only consider fading the news when Andre1 free-falls even lower, as shut to the brexit all time reduced. The best chance will be created by that along with with unsubstantial news that could very nicely be rumours.
    Crosses in mind contains 83000 and jpy. Secure havens and funds will flock therein occasions of uncertainty, namely since they're considered.

    Hung parliament is comfirmed. You'll find talks of T.May re signing. She will probably be creating her speech nowadays which may possibly provide clues to potential and her potential of UK.
    It is time to figure how all this impacts the pound.
    First on my head is the reality that Brexit negotiations is going to be handled differently. Whether uk will get a delicate or hard brexit stays to be observed.
    Next aspect in thought is T.May's achievable resignation and alternative. Who might it be it be and what is going to be hisor her impact on the ecomony and currency?

  6. #26
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    1 Attachment(s) 09/06/2017

    My see now about the UK is they are in one massive mess. From affairs, to economy that is slowing, to foreign-affairs, to security.
    Huge shorting opportunity here

    As constantly I sh All count on on my secure nzd as the counter currency.
    I seen a bearish breakout on the gbpnzd and cant assist but join such a opportunity. I may possibly have been late before creating my shift as I waited for UK election outcomes.
    Entered somewhat below 1.762. My TP zone is everywhere from 1.72 - 1.69. Slightly over the swing lows.
    SL is above 1.8 in conjunction with with any news which changes my fundamental notion
    I might TP early depending on how brexit negotiations goes

  7. #27
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    Gbpnzd now viewing red and nzdusd gave straight back quite a a piece of its gains.
    I 've hypothesized a number of possible reasons for this:

    - For gbp, it absolutely was indeed an over reaction and prices are reverting to the me an. For the reason that case, I 'll need to be weary of the medium-lengthy expression course. Im nonetheless bearish on the gbp. Does gbp is viewed by this signifies markets ? I had say its very unlikely but I won't rule it out. Will need to observe further in a few days for comfirmation/violation of my expectation

    - For 83000, markets are straight back for action and relieved that comey did perhaps not fall a bombshell on Trump. And they're focusing straight back on guidelines that are trumps. In this instance, I 'm now relying greatly on the bet that traders will TP following the hike that is june. I'm still assured that my wager will probably pay off in profits, while I feel this speculation includes a fair possibility of being correct.

    - Markets are merely straight back from their risk-off positions after super thursday. I might not be concerned in this circumstance as no fundamental modifications in the currencies.

    - Its just a friday point. Traders are closing positions forward of the week ends therefore Andre1 reverses. When markets re opens I'll only be capable to comfirm this reality in a few days.

    - It could just be market volatility. As prices moved with no trigger from news. Usually when prices moves like this, they tend to reverse straight back on course. Call it whatever, pull-back or retracement. It's difficult to comfirm. But it could be an excellent chance for me personally to include to my positions.

    - My assumptions and anticipations of market reactions were incorrect. And traders are viewing 83000 and gbp differently. Similar to above, I can't comfirm this until in a few days.

    Overall, my complete positions are hovering around break even le Vel. Which I 'm nonetheless relatively comfy with.
    I'll wait it out for further indicators of comfirmation/violations of any of my speculation/assumptions/anticipations before producing any adjustments to the portfolio.
    The crucial attribute that I I will remind myself such scenario is to perhaps not stress. I'm not proven wrong from the market however, I'm also perhaps not right that is verified. Thus I should weather the volatility till a definite signal is received by me. It really is simply a waiting game now...

  8. #28
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    The approaching week is going to be an event-filled one for my positions.
    For gbp I will soon be viewing May's trip to to create a coalition with DUP as properly as brexit negotiations activities.
    As properly as CPI information on tuesday, un Employment rate on wednesday, and retail revenue on thurs.
    BOE is perhaps not predicted to alter the curiosity rate but could supply insights in their coverage course.

    For 83000, the crucial function is FMOC interest rate selection and assertion on wednesday. Although extremely anticipated to boost interest rate this time. The primary level traders are searching for is a third curiosity rate hike later this yr. Will they keep elevating or maybe not? My wager is on disappointment. As US economic data are not seeking too-good now. Also, Im betting that money that is smart will TP following the rate hike. Especially if the fed happens as also mindful before determining on a third rate hike.
    Apart from this, PPI on Tue, CPI and retail revenue on wed, un Employment statements on thurs.

    Also, NZ gdp will be on late wednesday. I'll need to take NZ economy in to thought as my positions are crossed with nzd.

    At the sides, I 'll be monitoring US crude oil inventories. Tracking crude oil as I sense there's a chance to buy inexpensive once the bottom is hit by prices.
    Related to oil is the qatar issue. As it unfolds I 'll be viewing it.

    Update 12/06/2017

    My positions are more in debt and I 'm now using a small loss overall. Why prices are perhaps not heading the way I expected it really is still not known to me.
    Apart from my speculation in my own previous post, I examine that traders are using profits off nzdusd forward of FMOC. Which appears reasonable if you ask me.
    I might be closing out my 2500 placement on a reduction, but possibly come wednesday.

    As for gbp, I don t see any news outlining the transfer against me. In reality, my expectations are broadly speaking supported by news reports. As im nevertheless in profits for this particular position, I sh All wait the volitiliy out.

  9. #29
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    My positions are straight back in the green again
    Just an observation about gbpnzd pair, the volitility on this pair is really big. I really could be 100 pips the next hour Im, down one hour 3 pips up.

    My guess is that markets are ultimately commencing to Andre1-in the political in stability in the UK.
    Usd wise, it's been hovering around 0.719 - 0.72 yesterday after falling to a reduced of 0.7175. Andre1 ultimately breaking to the up side the previous hour.
    I reckon the drop was a retracement. Now prices are heading in the best direction.

    Coming up later to-day is UK CPI PPI. And US PPI. Readings are expected by me. Any readings that are astonishing greater will have that I may closeout early and me forged doubts.

    Onto oil, brent crude prices are perhaps not heading anyplace. Could this be consolidation before still another fall? Or are prices rebounding straight back? It appears that there may possibly be bull strain accumulating. But news are nevertheless instead blended as of this aspect of time. Those specialists may possibly be incorrect after-all, prices may possibly perhaps not contact $4-5.

    I have now been keeping track of the tech-businesses sell off these previous few times. Word is this might be the next bubble. It will not be entirely ignored by me, although skeptical.
    Where are the cash heading to? This is the issue that is golden.

    Also, I've been seeking a-T US 1 and 30y T-bond yesterday. I get daily pay outs, as I 'm trading CFD and I do maybe not need to leave my funds in till maturity.
    If markets were actually to crash, I speculate that traders will seek bonds to park their cash, therefore driving bond prices up. I'll observe on the side-lines as I 'm new to the entire bonds market.
    My current program would be to buy US T-bonds and maintain long term as portion of diversifying (gt; 1-year). My worry nevertheless is I I may finish up in a reduction as an alternative to profit and that bond prices may drop. I'll work out the finerAfter doing more investigation details of my trading plan.

  10. #30
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    Update 13/06/2017

    UK economic information just-out, was better than predicted. And prices undoubtedly confirmed it, re-tracing to around break-even level.
    This is worrying for me personally as I 'm now trapped between early exit or securing to my place.
    As of now I 'm still in the green so I feel comfortable securing. My next evaluation is after BOE interest rate selection on thurs. I 'll observe how markets respond, that can guide my management of the position.


    Concensus by analyst say this inflation information will have little impact on interest rate considering UK economy now along with the political uncertainty.
    Although I should not entirely trust other's thoughts, it does provide me with some assurance to retain my place.

  11. #31
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    Nzd current account provides worse than-expected readings. Possibly adding to to the slideback in my positions. This really is starting to get worrying.
    Today is a crucial day for my nzdusd placement.
    FMOC assertion NZD gdp info.
    My expectation is a fall after interest rate announcement and declaration. Unless the fed is continuously optimistic.

    For my gbpnzd placement, im in the red but only by sub 50pips. I might look at this this an opportunity to include positions, but the current nzd info makes me unsure

    In other markets, US 30y T-bond is bouncing back from a low of approximately 155. I go as a signal that Andre1 is reverting back to the mean. Once I comfirm the candle, may visit.

    Brent crude prices is certaintly reflecting the uncertainty in the power market as it is not heading anyplace.


    UK economic data displays somewhat worse than-expected studying. My gbpnzd placement is shot in by possibly outlining the bear.
    Somehow, my nzdusd position ultimately produced development. It might be feasible that traders are positioning themselves for FMOC.
    Im in a great place to TP any time.

    Update 2

    Us info all worse than-expected. Placing stress on the fed. I suspect this is basically an incident of market overreaction, although things are heading my way for now. Lets see the feds reaction...

  12. #32
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    1 Attachment(s) 14/06/2017

    In a work to diversify, as properly as my bearish outlook on the us economy. I'll be inserting a limit order for US 30y Tbond a T 157. It'll most probably be triggered to fmoc from markets a reaction to.
    My expectation is for the worth of the bond to to increase. Final TP established a T 1-75 which is the best extended-expression Andre1 goal. However, when the economy accelerates, I 'll use discretion here and TP by hand.

    As the worth of bonds have a absoulate bottom, I 've perhaps not established a difficult SL point. Rather, I average and will hold into my bond position as prices go lower. Eventually, prices will head straight back up. It really is only an issue of how lengthy (years) and how deep my funds (as im using leverage).
    There will be daily payout s O im alright with-holding the placement indefinitely.


    Limit order triggered.

  13. #33
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    After re-considering markets expectation towards the fed. I think the risk now is that the fed emphasize a third rate hike and stays optimistic. This might cause some bull transfer for the 83000. Coupled with all the truth that fmoc is within my my rest. I sense it's safer for me to close my place out now.

    Closed out nzdusd a T 0.73 for a handsome obtain of 140pips

  14. #34
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    Good turn to TP yesterday. As prices for nzdusd fell back to bout 0.723 after fed stays optimistic and nz gdp missed anticipations.

    However, my gbp placement took a strike and fell back to about 40pip in debt. This pair h AS volatility that is insane by my regular, as I 've already seen. Im fairly confident this is markets overreaction to nz information. Also, gbp is still viewed by me as the currency that is weaker.
    However, Im nonetheless slightly worried by the poor information.
    I 'm not anticipating much exaggerated response from BOE function later. So ill assume prices to continue monitor heading lower.

    Us 30y Tbond was still another sufferer of feds shock optimism. Hovering around break-even therefore ill abandon it be.

    Brent crude lastly broke below 4-7 le Vel, im starting to feel the analysts were proper. We may see prices achieve 4-5.


    My gbp placement is a traditional illustration of murphys legislation. Markets reacted for curiosity rate hike. I 'm now sitting a-T 90-100pips in debt. Unsure whether this re-Action that is bullish is to keep for the extended or short phrase. While I 'm still bearish on the gbp, I can-not combat the market...
    As what I generally do, I 'll take a seat on on the the positioning until it's clearer to me the bias of the market

  15. #35
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    Disappointing uk info triggered gbp to drop against nzd. Final place for the week is 35pips reduction. That is an indication that uk economy is certainly tilting towards the aspect that is gradual, providing me self-confidence in keeping my placement.

    I 'll be somewhat hectic the complete of in a few days s O I will not be around the watch for entering trades. I'll just be performing an occasional check always check into my positions that are opened.

    Trade Reflection

    I entered long on this particular pair as a reduced risk guess of the 83000 depreciating against nzd.
    Fundamentally, I 'd a robust purpose to short the 2500. And comparatively secure economic efficiency has been shown by picking an currency which.
    Technically, I was mindful of where prospective reversal factors could be. Which was a aspect for my TP that is early. As Andre1 re-traced by really a sum, in the long run, I had been proven right. However, I could do better by considering the long term possible as opposed to the short-expression. As I 'll maybe not be awake to baby-sit my place thought, through, throughout FMOC, my considering a T that that time in time was to lock in my own profits. Would it have been better to consider the possible retracement is short-term and also that 75000 may nonetheless depreciate? Possibly. Was it just luck or a well-calculated shift? As of this aspect of time I'd say that it was a bit of equally.

    Overall, this trade taught me that I 'm really sensitive to news and fundamentals. I 'll have the urge to shut my positions over 1 2 unwanted function. that is news This is really a possible trade killer that I require to re solve.
    I'll need to to teach myself to examine news occasion and whether their effect is main or small, short or lengthy expression. If it ain't key, take a seat on on your placement.

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