I will begin considering requests for numbers and probabilities
I won't take all requests but leave a comment and I will think about what I want to test. .
The testing is based on 10 decades of information. (EUR/USD. . See post #7 more details)
I will mostly consider numbers of daily TF plus a few higher TF. . (your welcome to request anything tho. . Convince me)
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HOW TO SUBMIT A REQUEST:
Start your article with a name REQUEST and kindly leave the precise criteria. . Something such as figures that 2 days with higher highs will be followed by 3rd day of higher high (like I said I may not examine it but I'll consider whether it resembles promising data)
(ALSO.state that the TF and YEARS somewhere. . I will try on Daily when you may be thinking 1M or something. . And I will test 10 decades of information when you might just want the most recent. .)
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PS: Others are welcome to discuss there information if any. . And one last thing... if one or more of these probabilities help you create a fantastic system at the least you can do is talk about your system with the thread or PM me
AGAIN: Post #7 Raises some important considerations
---------STATISTICS AND PROBABILITIES---------
This will proceed the collection of information we produce... I'll begin with something basic...Condition (current day generates Greater High than previous afternoon price gt; 21 SMA gt; 50 SMA)(10 decades of data)
Current Day will Close Above preceding High = 55.21%
Current Day Will Close Below preceding High = 44.79%
Next Day May Create A New High = 60.26%
Next Day May Fail to Produce New High = 39.74%
Condition (current day makes Reduced Low than previous day price lt; 21 SMA lt; 50 SMA)(10 decades of data)
Current Day will Close Below Previous Low = 52.96%
Current Day will Close Above Previous Low = 47.04%
Next Day will create a New Reduced = 60.81%
Next Day May Fail to Make New Low = 39.19%
Price Returns to Open Making a New High or Low(10 decades of data)
Price Returns to Open after earning New High = 61.46%
Price Returns to Open after earning New Low = 59.74%
(NOTE: for instance, this means after creating a new top, price will return to the opening price at 1 time 60% of their time)
what's the likelihood of getting at least 50pips of breakout distance from either low or high of 2nd bar, provided that the retracement from breakout stage is less than 50pips? (10 decades of information daily charts)
result = 47.62%
Condition: bar3 (whatever ), bar2 ( makes higher higher low compared to bar3), bar1 (insidebar), bar0 (now breaks bar1 high). .
(testing data on 1 hour chart for 10 years)
likelihood it will go up 20 pips = 45.94%
likelihood it will return 20 pips = 54.06%
About #3. . Of the 60% of times. . (10 decades of data)
price makes new high yields to start, chance it. . Returns to continue days = 68.26%
price makes new low yields to start, chance it. . Returns to last days low again = 66.58%
Daily candle has been the same direction as candle from the last day.
45.36%
Weekly candle has been the same leadership as candle from the previous week.
50%
LONDON and NEWYORK stats
Average pips each breakout:
(I utilized internet pips to ascertain trend/breakout. . But results are in actual pips)
(London breakout define as 3-6am(EST). . Newyork breakout define as 8am-12pm(EST)
(10 years data)
London up = 40 pips
(this implies if London breaksout upward. . It averages 40 pip upmove)
London down 39 pips
(this implies if London breaksout Downward. . It averages 40 pip down move)etc. for rest of results
NewYork up = 57 pips
NewYork down 56 pips
(Measure 2 years data)
London up = 54 pips
London down = 57 pips
NewYork up = 76 pips
NewYork down = 73 pips
NEWYORK LONDON Duplie eachother? :
(10 Years)
NEWYORK replied LONDON = 49.19%
LONDON replied NEWYORK = 48.23%
(Last 2 Years)
NEWYORK replied LONDON = 49.92%
LONDON replied NEWYORK = 49.14%
(10 years)
London's direction now will be London's direction tomorrow 47.73%
NewYork's direction now will be NewYork's direction tomorrow 47.82%
About #3 and #5
I conducted the test . . This is the result when you use the prior bars middle point in contrast to the newbars open price (that can be same as last bars near price)
therefore the middle stage of prior bar. .
It makes new high. . Chance it yields to previous bars mean 38.92%
so now its left a new high and go back to the mean stage. . Opportunity that it makes it back to the top = 30.29%
and if you want to learn the percentage of times over a 10 year interval that price made a new high. . Return to mean of bar. . And made it back. . 10.22%
Just wanted to demone the connection to risk to reward. . Or that in previous evaluation 3 and 5 the open price was frequently close to the high in winning opportunities. . But considering the risk to reward. . You draw your own conclusions
Will the weekend gap fade?
Yes it will fade = 53.97% of this time
NOTE: This can be achieved with 1:1 risk to reward. . Therefore, in the event the weekend gap has been 50 pips. . Will it vanish the 50 pips. . Or move the opposite direction 50 pips. .
Standard Deviation
if price goes to 1 SD or -1 SD. . You instantly place a trade in relation to this average, with TP at the average, and SL at 2 or -2 SD (to get 1:1 risk to reward)
chance you will get your TP = 54.23%
Its Friday and just after London shut
the week was up. . Is it true that the EUR/USD retrace in leadership before forex closes for the weekend? Will everyone take their profits prior to the weekend?
NO! More frequently than not Friday's past couple of hours will continue in the weeks trend's course. .
Friday after London closes: (10 years data)
Continues in weeks direction = 56.10%
Retraces direction = 43.90%