Market Statistics and Probabilities (requests welcome)
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Thread: Market Statistics and Probabilities (requests welcome)

  1. #1
    I will begin considering requests for numbers and probabilities

    I won't take all requests but leave a comment and I will think about what I want to test. .

    The testing is based on 10 decades of information. (EUR/USD. . See post #7 more details)

    I will mostly consider numbers of daily TF plus a few higher TF. . (your welcome to request anything tho. . Convince me)

    ----------------------------------------
    HOW TO SUBMIT A REQUEST:

    Start your article with a name REQUEST and kindly leave the precise criteria. . Something such as figures that 2 days with higher highs will be followed by 3rd day of higher high (like I said I may not examine it but I'll consider whether it resembles promising data)

    (ALSO.state that the TF and YEARS somewhere. . I will try on Daily when you may be thinking 1M or something. . And I will test 10 decades of information when you might just want the most recent. .)
    ----------------------------------------


    PS: Others are welcome to discuss there information if any. . And one last thing... if one or more of these probabilities help you create a fantastic system at the least you can do is talk about your system with the thread or PM me

    AGAIN: Post #7 Raises some important considerations



    ---------STATISTICS AND PROBABILITIES---------
    This will proceed the collection of information we produce... I'll begin with something basic...Condition (current day generates Greater High than previous afternoon price gt; 21 SMA gt; 50 SMA)(10 decades of data)
    Current Day will Close Above preceding High = 55.21%
    Current Day Will Close Below preceding High = 44.79%
    Next Day May Create A New High = 60.26%
    Next Day May Fail to Produce New High = 39.74%

    Condition (current day makes Reduced Low than previous day price lt; 21 SMA lt; 50 SMA)(10 decades of data)

    Current Day will Close Below Previous Low = 52.96%
    Current Day will Close Above Previous Low = 47.04%
    Next Day will create a New Reduced = 60.81%
    Next Day May Fail to Make New Low = 39.19%

    Price Returns to Open Making a New High or Low(10 decades of data)

    Price Returns to Open after earning New High = 61.46%

    Price Returns to Open after earning New Low = 59.74%

    (NOTE: for instance, this means after creating a new top, price will return to the opening price at 1 time 60% of their time)

    what's the likelihood of getting at least 50pips of breakout distance from either low or high of 2nd bar, provided that the retracement from breakout stage is less than 50pips? (10 decades of information daily charts)

    result = 47.62%

    Condition: bar3 (whatever ), bar2 ( makes higher higher low compared to bar3), bar1 (insidebar), bar0 (now breaks bar1 high). .

    (testing data on 1 hour chart for 10 years)

    likelihood it will go up 20 pips = 45.94%

    likelihood it will return 20 pips = 54.06%

    About #3. . Of the 60% of times. . (10 decades of data)

    price makes new high yields to start, chance it. . Returns to continue days = 68.26%

    price makes new low yields to start, chance it. . Returns to last days low again = 66.58%

    Daily candle has been the same direction as candle from the last day.

    45.36%

    Weekly candle has been the same leadership as candle from the previous week.

    50%

    LONDON and NEWYORK stats

    Average pips each breakout:
    (I utilized internet pips to ascertain trend/breakout. . But results are in actual pips)
    (London breakout define as 3-6am(EST). . Newyork breakout define as 8am-12pm(EST)

    (10 years data)

    London up = 40 pips
    (this implies if London breaksout upward. . It averages 40 pip upmove)

    London down 39 pips
    (this implies if London breaksout Downward. . It averages 40 pip down move)etc. for rest of results

    NewYork up = 57 pips
    NewYork down 56 pips


    (Measure 2 years data)

    London up = 54 pips
    London down = 57 pips

    NewYork up = 76 pips
    NewYork down = 73 pips


    NEWYORK LONDON Duplie eachother? :

    (10 Years)

    NEWYORK replied LONDON = 49.19%

    LONDON replied NEWYORK = 48.23%

    (Last 2 Years)

    NEWYORK replied LONDON = 49.92%

    LONDON replied NEWYORK = 49.14%


    (10 years)
    London's direction now will be London's direction tomorrow 47.73%

    NewYork's direction now will be NewYork's direction tomorrow 47.82%

    About #3 and #5

    I conducted the test . . This is the result when you use the prior bars middle point in contrast to the newbars open price (that can be same as last bars near price)

    therefore the middle stage of prior bar. .

    It makes new high. . Chance it yields to previous bars mean 38.92%

    so now its left a new high and go back to the mean stage. . Opportunity that it makes it back to the top = 30.29%

    and if you want to learn the percentage of times over a 10 year interval that price made a new high. . Return to mean of bar. . And made it back. . 10.22%

    Just wanted to demone the connection to risk to reward. . Or that in previous evaluation 3 and 5 the open price was frequently close to the high in winning opportunities. . But considering the risk to reward. . You draw your own conclusions

    Will the weekend gap fade?

    Yes it will fade = 53.97% of this time

    NOTE: This can be achieved with 1:1 risk to reward. . Therefore, in the event the weekend gap has been 50 pips. . Will it vanish the 50 pips. . Or move the opposite direction 50 pips. .

    Standard Deviation
    if price goes to 1 SD or -1 SD. . You instantly place a trade in relation to this average, with TP at the average, and SL at 2 or -2 SD (to get 1:1 risk to reward)

    chance you will get your TP = 54.23%

    Its Friday and just after London shut

    the week was up. . Is it true that the EUR/USD retrace in leadership before forex closes for the weekend? Will everyone take their profits prior to the weekend?

    NO! More frequently than not Friday's past couple of hours will continue in the weeks trend's course. .

    Friday after London closes: (10 years data)

    Continues in weeks direction = 56.10%

    Retraces direction = 43.90%

  2. #2
    AND the bible isn't right.

    Speak!

  3. #3
    Could you also program a system that is almost well defined?

    Could you test how much retracement following every major turning point from candles counting out fibo numbers; 3,5,8,13,21 etc..

    Could you test if macd 10 min in management of trade and 2 10 min sequential candles in that way approximate dimension of move....

    You know there is an avg. Swing for every currency...

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    [color=Blue][I]#8220;An obligatory condition should function as binding stops into a technically substantial degree, that is, to encourage, resistance, or a trendline. Stops should be placed just in which the probability of continuation of a motion in the direction contrary to your position develops sharply....

    So far as I know, lots of traders typically place stops contemplating money management reasons only. .... Technical levels like trend lines, supports, or resistances (often being shut at a brief distance behind the stops) are not taken...
    In wrestling, there becomes a point of desperation, where to protect against the onslaught from ongoing, the losing wrestler must tap out. They have admitted that they have the intention.

    Think about the way this'obligatoy condition' of placing your stops behind a technically substantial degree, divulges your point of desperation at which you can't bear the drawdown. Putting it behind a technically substantial degree, along with individuals who sumbit to this modus operendi, are showing their hands on the worst possible people - professional traders. You're putting yourself in a compromising position each time, and as price nears your'well-placed stop', it is merely a matter of time before your position is chomped up to give liquidity for theirs...1, 2, 3.

    Sort of reminds me of a clustered elevator using a lot of people..when the cable snaps, boy oh boy does it drop.

    PS. While I do find the number-crunching and statistical analysis intriguing, I only hope that the aim of your research endeavor isn't to develop a system predied on trying X quantities of pips to get a stop-loss, and using the one that provides the most profitable outcomes over backtested data. Beware of curve-fitting. .it may come back to bite you.

    Regards,

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    In wrestling, there becomes a point of desperation, where to protect against the onslaught from continuing, the losing wrestler must tap out. They've admitted that they no longer have the intention.

    Consider how this'obligatoy condition' of placing your stops behind a technically significant degree, divulges your point of despair in which you can't bear the drawdown. Placing it behind a technically significant degree, together with people who also sumbit to the modus operendi, are showing...
    Agreed.
    However, what I was taking from the quote was that a stop should not be arbitrary in relation to significant price levels. It should not be put because it is 20 pips from my entry.
    Placing it from the standards of cash management, giving your commerce area to breathe, and significant price levels is the best method to find the most of your stop.

    I've read what you've stated in a couple of books and I wholeheartedly agree.
    I maintain the exact same in your mind for my personal stops but I was only stating that sort of stoploss of this statistic. I'm so it may be designed of course. Mine at least.

    @newyear
    I'd like to see your layout for the psych level evaluation, newyear
    And that I dropped you a PM

  6. #6
    This is a touchy subject. . I understand it to be

    some individuals might be stuck to there belief and insult me for going against there opinion. .

    Like if somebody challenges something from the bible the bible fans are going to reverse shit

    so what I'm saying is as the results are adding up. . It will never be accepted by those spiritual believers in the gap if some find them impressive. .


    OK RESULTS ARE IN!

    Can the weekend difference fade?

    Yes it will fade = 53.97percent of this time

    state exactly what you would like. . But this is achieved with 1:1 risk to reward. . Therefore, if the weekend gap has been 50 pips. . Will it fade the 50 pips. . Or move the opposite direction 50 pips. .

    Well, there it is

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    AND the bible isn't right.

    Discuss!
    I think.... That it is a sin to talk about faith on this forum.

    May theforexintuitivegods have mercy on your soul.

  8. #8
    My point being that these are my results. . Please don't crucify me

    lol

  9. #9
    I just ran a backtest of 10 years information on Standard Deviation

    The results reveal a small statistical benefit.
    Considering the upper and lower SD provided similar results it's convincing enough (for me at least) that there's an edge to be obtained in the future...

    Here are the stats. . With 1:1 risk to reward,
    if price goes to 1 SD or -1 SD. . You immediately put a trade in relation to the typical with TP in the typical and SL in 2 or -2 SD

    opportunity you will receive your own TP = 54.23%

    its small edge but its actually a fairly good evaluation result in all honesty. . Also it surly might be filtered for even better results I would put my money on

    anyways these are the first evaluation results I have that show me some proof in the pudding of an entrance exit point with better than 50% probability. . And good risk to reward

    Well it may mean nothing to you but these are interesting to me

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I just ran a backtest of 10 years data on Standard Deviation

    The results show a small statistical benefit.
    Considering the top and lower SD supplied similar results it's persuasive enough (for me at least) that there's an edge to be gained in the long term...

    Here are the stats. . With 1:1 risk to reward,
    if price goes to 1 SD or -1 SD. . You instantly put a trade in direction of this typical with TP in the typical and SL in 2 or -2 SD

    chance you'll get your TP = 54.23percent

    its a small advantage but its really a pretty solid test...
    Interesting outcome. I am a bit confused by deviation though, can you explain a bit more practical? Could deviation be a number of pips?

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